Sunday, August 20, 2006

The Rightwing Group Slander Of Liberals Refuted—Part 5A

The Big Picture—Parties, Abortion and Race Over The Years.

After a long hiatus, I continue my argument (based primarily on data from the General Social Survey [GSS]) that it’s not liberals, but ultra-conservative movement conservatives who are far outside America’s mainstream. In contrast, ordinary conservatives and liberals agree much more often than not. Originally planned as a single post on abortion, it has grown so long that I’m presenting it in 6 sub-parts. Abortion is very important, as it represents the first long-lived social wedge issue supplanting the role of race, which has since slipped into the background. It is only such issue that has robust GSS polling from the early 1970s to date.

With decades of organizing, the anti-choice movement has managed to produce very little net change in the balance of attitudes, which remain closely divided, depending on how questions are asked. It has done a great deal to re-arrange the structure of such attitudes, and the ways they play out in the electoral arena. Polarization has increased since 30 years, but the end result falls far short of the extreme that is commonly supposed.

Backstory Refresher

The original claim that started this all was that liberals are to blame for Ann Coulter’s repeated calls for murder. Their alleged “extremism” around social issues in the early 1980s, it was claimed here, drove moderates and conservatives out of the Democratic Party and into the GOP. As a result, “Coulterization of the GOP is your own doing.”

In contrast, I have argued—using good, old-fashioned reality-based data—that [beginning in Part 1] polarization around social issues is vastly exaggerated, and that [in Part 3] race was the primary impetus for the growth of conservatism in the Republican Party, and exodus from the Democrats. This showed up first in votes for President—as far back as the Dixiecrat candidacy of Strom Thurmond in 181948, and then trickled down the ballot, slowed by the fact that Southern Democrats generally reflected the views of Southern whites, rather than those of the national party. Social wedge issues did play a role, of course—but it was primarily that of covering for race, facilitating, consolidating, rationalizing and moralizing the racially-motivated abandonment of the Democratic Party that centered heavily in the white South.

The primary proof was found in comparing shifts in political identification (from 1972-1984 to 1994-2004) in the white South with the rest of the country. Within the white South, consolidating the figures for liberals, moderates and conservatives within each party, Republicans gained 14.8%, and Democrats lost 14.0%, a dramatic net shift of 28.8%. (One gets slightly different figures using party ID figures directly, due to rounding errors, and people who don’t identify themselves ideologically: Republicans gained 14.1%, Democrats lost 14.7%, for am identical net shift of 285.8%) Outside the white South, by the first measure, Republicans gained just 1.8%, while Democrats lost 4.2%--a much more modest net shift of 6.0%, less than ¼ the shift in the white South. By the second measure, Republicans gained just 1.6%, while Democrats lost 5.3%--a next shift of 6.9%.

This still left the Democrats with a massive advantage outside the white South: 37.7% to 24.5% by the first measure, 37.5% to 24.3% by the second. Inside the white South, however their 42%/23% advantage in 1972-1984 eroded to a 27.9%/37.3% disadvantage, approaching a complete reversal, by the first measure. By the second, the results were nearly identical: a drop from 42.0%/23.2% to 27.3%/37.3%.

The evidence from look at abortion introduces secondary proof---the lack of any sudden, massive increase in social liberalism within the Democratic Party in the early 1980s. Indeed, the Democratic Party membership remained more conservative socially than the Republican Party until the late 1980s. Liberalism on abortion did not increase dramatically within the Democratic Party until the 1990s, as a result of, and reaction to twenty years of anti-abortion activism that centered strongly in the Republican Party.

For quick reference, here are links to all 4 previous parts of this series:
  • Part 1: Introduction. Overview of argument and data.
  • Part 2: GSS Spending shows conservative support for the welfare state, and high levels of cross-ideological agreement.
  • Part 3] shows shifts in party identification consistent with the historical record of race as the primary impetus for white Democrats shifting to the Republican Party.
  • Part 4] looks at the partisan shifts through the lens of religion.



The Plan of Part 5

Part 5 in this series consists of 6 parts. Before describing them, I need to quickly explain two different sorts of measure that we’ll be using. First are primary measures of the levels of support for and opposition to abortion rights among different groups. These are important for establishing when and where shifts in support or opposition occurred. Second are levels of agreement and difference in the primary measures between groups. These are important for establishing the degrees of polarization.

After the introductory material, Part 5A looks at primary measures. In the main section (“The Big Picture—Parties, Abortion and Race Over The Years.”), we see that partisan shifts in opinion did not occur suddenly in the early 1980s, as the conservative narrative claims. Indeed, it was not until after 1987 that Democrats remained reliably more pro-choice than Republicans. We contrast views on abortion with underlying attitudes on race, to emphasize how differently the two dynamics played out, and how clearly race has played a more constant, and leading role. (The abortion measures we use are two scales—AbThreat and AbAutonomy—which are explained below.)

These findings are sufficient to refute the claim that an early 1980s influx of liberals into the Democratic Party was the cause of increased polarization. They clearly show that the impact of race set in well before that time period, and was overwhelmingly focused in the same part of the country. They are perfectly consistent with the vast sweep of historical evidence that race drove the realignment of the parties in the South, not abortion.

The remaining posts go beyond simply refuting the rightwing myth, to developing a more nuanced understanding of how the changes actually took place over time.

Part 5B (“Abortion: The Big Picture”) moves on to looking at agreement and disagreement, starting with refresher to explain how the concept works in terms of a concrete example. After that, we look take a high-level look at the 18 substantive abortion questions asked by GSS. These fall into two distinct categories. First, we look at the 11 questions which were asked once or a few times in the early 80s, but not long enough to establish significant trends. Then we take our first direct look at 7 individual questions that were asked repeatedly from the early-to-mid 1970s to the present. We look at the results for the entire 30+ year timespan taken as a single whole.

These 7 questions fall into two distinct groups. The first is a set of three questions dealing with threat situations—rape, threat to the mother’s health, or a strong chance of serious birth defects. A combined measure of views on these three questions is called the AbThreat scale. It ranges from support for all three to opposition to all three. The remaining four questions deal with choices that clearly reflect a woman’s right to autonomy—abortion for any reason, if not married, if married but wants no more children, and if low-income. A combined measure of these views is called the AbAutonomy scale, ranging from support for all four to opposition to all four.

Part 5C (“Abortion: How The Picture Changes Over Time”) is a detailed look at those 7 questions over time. We examine them both as groups of related questions, and collectively as the two abortion scales—AbThreat and AbAutonomy. We examine them across three time periods (1972-1984, 1985-1993, and 1994-2004) and in two demographic divisions—the white South and the rest of the country.

Part 5D (“Party, Ideology and Abortion”) reintroduces the issue of party, and looks at how party and ideology interact in terms of abortion attitudes.

Part 5E (“Abortion and Church Attendance”) examines the role of church attendance. While regular church attendance is strongly associated with opposition to abortion, there was very little change over the years in the strength of this correlation, except for the AbThreat scale, most notably in the white South.

Finally, Part 5F (“Abortion And Political Narratives”) sums up the findings combines them with some other recent data and relates them to the larger issue of political narratives. It stresses the degree to which those driving polarization from the right represent precisely the sort of out-of-touch, anti-American fringe that they falsely accuse liberals of being. This is deeply significant in itself, but also quite timely, since exactly the same sort of dynamic is playing out in the attempted demonization of Ned Lamont, and the roughly 60% of the American people who agree with him. What this data shows is that Lamont’s candidacy is emblematic of a chronic, enduring condition in American politics, not just the acute crisis that has created the electoral opening.

We now turn to the body of Part 5A.

The Big Picture—Parties, Abortion and Race Over The Years

The lesson here is pretty simple: race has been a fairly constant means to distinguish between the parties since the Civil Rights Era, but abortion has shifted dramatically—not in the early 80s or before, when conservative revisionists would have it, but in the late 80s and early 90s, just around the time that Soviet Union disappeared as a bogey man, and “Operation Rescue” erupted as a magnet for drawing together anti-choice forces.

Let’s start off with looking at abortion, observe the pattern it reveals, and then look at race for a comparison. We’ll use two abortion scales that will be explained more fully below. The first one, AbThreat, combines three questions that involve abortion in threatening circumstances—rape, birth defect, or serious threat to the pregnant woman’s health. The second one, AbAutonomy, combines four questions that are concerned with abortion as function of a woman’s right to make fundamental life-choices, rather than have them made for her. We have two charts presenting these scales on a year-by-basis—one for the white South, the other for the rest of the country.

First, the white South:
The colors follow a simple scheme: red/orange=anti-choice; blue/purple=pro-choice; gray=margin less than 1.0%; darker colors=stronger margins. As they help to highlight, Republican Party members as a whole were more supportive of abortion rights through 1987. The resurgence of Republican support in 1990 (for AbThreat) and 1991 (for AbAutonomy) was probably nothing more than a statistical anomaly—much like the earlier periods of higher Democratic support—since the number of people in these samples is small enough that random fluctuations are to be expected. At any rate, the most it can signal is some lingering transition period. From 1993 on, the margins of Democratic support are overwhelming.

If we look at the rest of the country, the pattern is similar, but with even less ambiguity. The Republican edge in supporting abortion rights ends sharply in 1987, never to reappear:
The conservative narrative that first sparked this series claims that it was extreme social liberalism in Democratic Party in the early 1980s that drove conservatives out of the party, and created the current highly polarized political culture. We’ve already seen—in Part 3 of this series—that no such mass influx of liberals occurred. The above table shows that—in the white South, at least—there was more anti-abortion sentiment among Republicans than among Democrats. If anyone was out of step at this time, it was the anti-abortion forces that flocked to support Ronald Reagan in the GOP primaries in 1976 and 1980. Their views would not become clearly more typical of the Republican Party until the very end of his presidency in 1988.

In contrast, let’s look at a situation where views of party members are in harmony with the party and party activist position. We use a scale created from four different explanations for why blacks have a lower socio-economic status (SES) than whites. Two answers offered internal reasons—essentially blaming blacks for their own condition—lack of intelligence and lack of will. Two answers offered external reasons—discrimination, and lack of educational opportunity. The scale combines all four answers—counting a negative to an internal reason the same as affirming an external reason. Those who give all four external reasons score “1;” three external and one external score “2;” two of each score “3;” one external and three internal score “4;” all four internal score “5.” Table measures the results in two ways: First, by the percentage giving more external reasons than internal ones (scoring “1” or “2”); and, second, by the mean answer given.

From the time of the Carter presidency, in the white South, Democrats are more likely to assign external causes. There were just 4 years when this wasn’t so, and the differences then were less than 1% in one year, and less than 2% in a second. The remaining two years could simply be statistical anomalies. But whatever they are, they are far from constituting a trend:
In the rest of the country—which, of course, includes blacks and other minorities, most of whom are Democrats—the differences are even more pronounced:
I am not arguing that these tables alone prove that racial attitudes are the cause of shifting allegiances. There is plenty of historical data—narrative as well as statistical—to support this view as well, which is precisely the sort of data that’s needed to distinguish between correlation and causality. The tables alone can only support that view, which they do. They show an historical correlation of party and racial attitudes. The historical data shows the causality.

In contrast, the abortion scale tables do not support the view that abortion was the cause of shifting party allegiances. The shifts in allegiance went against the correlations. This is what happens when a previously minority position takes over a party.

We can see another striking example of this drawing on another data source, the American National Election Study [ANES], which began in 1948, and asked about school integration beginning in 1962. [An interface for accessing both GSS and ANES data can be found here.]

This gives us a very good time series to look at how Democratic Party civil rights activism—which really got serious in 1963, with the Civil Rights Act—impacted party attitudes. This longer view goes back 15 years farther than the SES table above, to when Southern Whites in the Democratic Party were more anti-black than Republicans.
The pattern here is clearly the same as that seen with the abortion scales—a party’s position is directly opposed to the majority of its members, which takes some years to come around. In the column tracking the decline of Republican support, we also see the effects of mass defections to the GOP by the more racist elements of the Democratic Party.

Conclusion

The post that triggered this series claimed that liberal extremism drove the process of political polarization, leading to the state where a leading conservative such as Ann Coulter has repeatedly called for murder. Specifically, it was claimed:
It is my understanding that the two parties have been moving further and further apart on several very important fronts. The cultural front encompasses many diverse issues from illegal immigration to God in the public square to what it means to fight a war to gay rights to affirmative action. The economic front includes taxation, social programs, welfare, etc.

In my view the Democrats have been moving in the counter-cultural direction since at least the 1980s. The liberal/progressive wing of the party has grown rapidly and politicians took notice. Conservative democrats either adapted and changed, were tossed out in favor of more liberal candidates, or switched to GOP. Democratic base became dominated by the generation that went to Woodstock. Liberals who control the Democratic Party's current agenda (and comprise somewhere around 25% of US population) differ greatly from the rest of the American public on all the cultural issues I listed above.

Liberals overwhelmingly support homosexual lobby's agenda, affirmative action, and abortion on demand. They are much more secular than the rest of the Democrats and indeed the rest of Americans....

An average American has noticed the ascendancy of the Liberal movement. An average conservative has taken it as a threat to the American way of life....

American conservatives sense real danger to their value system and they do not need Ann's rhetoric to know what is going on. She just provides a sense of validation for their beliefs. We have been polarized long before Ann and Republican spinmeisters came along. Liberals (right or wrong) through their counter-cultural agenda polarized us. The blame is misplaced.


We’ve already seen that this narrative is filled with myths and errors. The liberal wing of the Democratic Party did not grow rapidly in the 1980s, forcing out conservatives. It was the conservative wing of the Republican Party that grew rapidly, and it did so primarily in the white South, where it was the “extremism” of the Civil Rights Movement—and the Democratic Party finally enforcing the 13th, 14th and 15th Amendments—that drove them into the GOP.

In this post, we’ve seen that conservative and moderate Democrats in the white South were leaving the Democratic Party in the early 1980s for a party whose members were more pro-abortion than the Democrats. This directly contradicts the narrative above. That’s because race—not abortion, gay rights or any other “social issue”—was driving the shift.

These social issues were important, of course—primarily as a means of rationalization. Those who had been on the wrong side of history, opposed to racial justice, needed a way to recapture the stance of moral superiority that they had previously claimed simply by the color of their skin. The “defense of innocent life” was a perfect vehicle for this. What’s more, leaders of the religious right specifically identified abortion as an issue to use to create a mass grassroots movement in direct imitation of the civil rights movement. Of course, many of those attracted to this politics were not racially motivated. But the origins of the movements they joined most definitely were.

Links To Previous Parts

Here again are links to all 4 previous parts of this series:
    Part 1: Introduction. Overview of argument and data.
  • Part 2: GSS Spending shows conservative support for the welfare state, and high levels of cross-ideological agreement.
  • Part 3] shows shifts in party identification consistent with the historical record of race as the primary impetus for white Democrats shifting to the Republican Party.
  • Part 4] looks at the partisan shifts through the lens of religion.

15 Comments:

At 11:49 AM, Blogger Robert D Feinman said...

Excellent as usual. I wonder if the lack of acknowledgement of the amount of racism still present is because much of society has resegregated. This means that whites don't, in general, have first hand experience with how blacks live. The end of bussing and the shifting housing patterns have also led to a resegregation of public schools as well. Jonathan Kozol had documented this recently.

The few times that blacks and whites mingle are in public accommodations. Sitting next to a black family at a ball game or restaurant allows people to convince themselves that racism no longer exists.

I would assume that a similar study on attitudes towards drug policy would also find much greater support for weakening the drug laws than the elected officals claim.

 
At 2:46 PM, Blogger Paul Rosenberg said...

I think that resegregation is both cause and effect. That, and the fact that much of America was never integrated in the first place.

The right has also been tremendously effective in promoting its individualist/conscious intention definition of racism, and the left has never mounted a sustained counter-attack.

 
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